EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (April 13, 2025)
Everyone has a tariff opinion, what’s wrong w/ Chinese corporate profits, passive investing risks, MENA's new face, SE Asia opportunities, commodities advance, March/Q1 fund updates, etc.
To start with, everyone has an opinion on tariffs with most of the Wall Street and corporate media crowd being the most negative and the alt-media and alt-finance crowd having more positive or nuanced takes. Here are a few key things you may have missed:
1) This Twitter thread talks about a paper called A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System who’s principles appear to be the Trump Administration’s playbook (while execution is more or less Trumpian):
2) Ex-New York Times journalist Alex Berenson wrote this Substack piece after getting into an argument with Bill Ackman on Twitter:
💻 Billionaire investor Bill Ackman defends Donald Trump's tariff play (Unreported Truths)
His view is worth reading, even if you don't agree. (I don't agree.)
The rest of the response is on Twitter along with many more tweets from Bill regarding tariffs…
3) In this interview, Chamath Palihapitiya from the All-In Podcast fielded question on tariffs from those who were both positive and sceptical of the policies:
🎥 Trump's Tariff Gamble EXPLAINED w/ Chamath | Bonus Ep (FLAGRANT) 1:34:35 Minutes (April 2025)
YERRR BONUS EP - the guys needed to get a breakdown of what was going on in the financial world so they brought in Chamath Palihapitiya from the All-In Podcast to explain to us what's going on with the tariffs, the economy, Trump and much much more. INDULGE
00:00 Rant!
00:43 What are the tariffs?
5:32 Other countries use of tariffs
9:39 The United States is the truly global leader
14:09 Reliance on others + Tariff helping self-sufficiency
16:55 Was the formula haphazard?
18:28 What is a trade deficit?
21:26 Using other countries as loopholes
23:54 Can China step in and exploit? Trading NATO
29:33 Job creation through tariffs?
34:23 Being world's consumer + Political Cronyism
39:29 Understanding America's debt
49:36 Trump is truly MAGA + Tariff shocked the market
53:08 Stock Market slumping's impact + What is inflation?
1:01:21 America needs growth + Elon's record
1:06:18 What is the downside to tariffs? Trump willing to talk
1:13:58 Being prepared this time around
1:16:58 How Chamath uses his capital
1:20:12 Chamath doesn't own public stocks + Recession incoming?
1:23:36 Are Recessions Republican led?
1:25:44 Views on the outcome? Waiting this out
4) The All-In Podcast also just had this debate with plenty of fireworks as entrepreneur David Sacks is now with the Trump Administration, Larry Summers was one of Clinton’s Treasury Secretaries, and Ezra Klein is about as corporate media as you can get:
🎥 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein (All-In Podcast) 2:01:57 Hours (April 2025)
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(0:58) Reacting to Trump targeting China and postponing all other reciprocal tariffs
(21:21) Measures for success of tariffs, debating the impact of letting China into the WTO
(46:14) Is the US being exploited on trade? Was free trade a mistake?
(1:02:01) Recession chances, How the Trump administration gathers information
(1:19:39) Future of the Democratic Party, Abundance agenda, DOGE
(1:51:00) The Besties recap the debate and Chamath recaps the Breakthrough Prize Ceremony
As we enter mid-April, March and Q1 fund updates have become available (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here) plus many fund managers continue to produce their own tariff related research pieces or talking points:
🔬🌐 Tracking AI in 10 charts (Robeco) - Even as AI-related stocks have faltered so far in 2025, competition has spurred continued investments into new AI models, digital infrastructure, and a wide range of applications across industries. Across this collection of ten stunning charts we track the current state of AI. Enjoy the read!
Global AI
Expanding AI
Competitive AI
Economic AI
Testing AI
Prioritizing AI
Scaling AI
Cooling AI
Robotic AI
Boring AI
🎥🔬 Part 2: Pathways to the Future Podcast on Gen AI (Polen Capital) 21:59 Minutes - Dan Davidowitz and Steve Atkins of Polen’s Large Company Growth team sit down with Zhang Zhang, head of AI and risk analytics, for a wide-ranging discussion on the technology and investment implications of generative AI. This is the second of three episodes [Part 1: Pathways to the Future Podcast on Gen AI] in Polen’s AI-focused miniseries, addressing topics that are top of mind for many investors today.
🔬🌐 How High is Too High? Taking Stock of Index Concentration in U.S. Large Cap Growth (Polen Capital) - The relentless rise of concentration raises important questions for investors.
The concentration of major U.S. large cap market-weighted indices has reached extreme levels by historical standards, inviting questions about limits and potential risks
Investors are wise to question how these market dynamics can impact their portfolio allocations and decision-making
Opportunities could emerge for skilled, active managers as concentration unwinds
🔬🌐 Resilient stocks with pricing power stand out amid tariffs (TCW) - We believe the companies that are well-positioned to remain resilient and weather a slowdown are those with pricing power, low debt levels, and the ability to generate strong free cash flow. This also includes industries that are exposed to thematic secular megatrends.