EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (April 20, 2025)
So many tariff takes, US universities/Asian pension funds in the looming private equity crisis, mood shift in commodity markets, rotation opportunities, March/Q4 fund updates/webinars, etc.
In the alt-finance podcasting space, I just listened to Tom Luongo’s and Custodia Bank’s Caitlin Long start out with a lengthy and fascinating discussion about Libor and what its discontinuation means for the USA, UK/City of London, and the USD:
🎙️ Podcast Episode #213 — Caitlin Long and the Financial Crisis that Wasn’t 1:25:45 Hours (April 2025)
Wall St. veteran, crypto advocate, and CEO of Custodia Bank Caitlin Long returns to the podcast to ask the questions and get to the bottom of what’s really going on inside of the changes to the US Treasury and global dollar plumbing markets. This is one of those episodes where my head was spinning as we kicked the ball back and forth.
They think it was the Europeans and the City of London/Bank of England etc responsible for the recent US treasury market turbulence - not China or the Japanese selling treasuries as others have speculated…
In addition: I don’t know much about crypto or so-called stablecoins, but it was mentioned in the podcast that Tether is giving people in emerging markets, who would not otherwise have much access to the US Dollar (the unbanked…), access to the US Dollar via a digital stablecoin pegged to the Dollar. In other words, predictions surrounding the death of the USD or the ending of its global reserve status or desirability might be premature.
They also talked about how the UK and Europe have shot themselves in the feet with their crypto/stablecoin rules/restrictions and sanctions on Russia which killed a “Petroeuro” that had slowly started to develop around the Euro and Russian energy… and had the potential to give the USD a run for its money…
As of Holy Week / Easter, a number of March or Q4 fund updates have dropped (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here) along with plenty of new research pieces focused on tariffs:
🔬🇪🇺 Europe’s time to shine (DWS) - The Trump administration's frontal assault on global trade will not spare Europe. But the main victim could be the U.S. stock market, not least because of the high valuation gap between the U.S. and Europe. Together with the reform of the German debt brake, this makes Europe's equities relatively interesting.
New Asia Fund Documents & Research
Asia Frontier Capital has the following updates:
🗄️🌏 AFC Asia Frontier Fund’s March monthly newsletter (detailed economic and portfolio - South Asian and Central Asian Frontier Markets Well Positioned to Navigate Uncertain U.S. Trade Policy - March 2025 Update) and noted many Asian frontier countries are not very dependent on overall exports for their economic growth, have an extremely low exposure to exports to the US, and that Vietnam is in the process of trying to secure trade talks plus Sri Lanka and Bangladesh were also discussed. Stocks discussed or mentioned by name:
📈🇰🇿 Halyk Bank (LSE: HSBK / FRA: H4L1) - Corporate Banking, SME Banking, Retail Banking & Investment Banking.
Unnamed performers/transactions (that can be guessed) mentioned:
📈🇲🇳 Mongolian concrete producer
📈🇵🇬 Gold miner from Papua New Guinea
📈🇰🇿 Kazakh bank
📈🌍 Tech company with a focus on Asian frontier markets
📈🇵🇰 Pakistani power equipment
📈🇵🇰 Pakistani consumer appliance producer
🏧🇲🇳 Mongolian coking coal miner
🗄️🇮🇶 AFC Iraq Fund’s March newsletter (economic and portfolio) noted the decline in expectations for future oil prices (orange line, chart above) has negative implications for Iraq’s oil export revenues while the government has yet to submit the updated budget tables for 2025.
🗄️🇺🇿 AFC Uzbekistan Fund’s March newsletter noted developing nicely, the fund is continuously building positions in top-tier listed companies that are best-positioned to benefit from Uzbekistan’s economic growth. The Uzbek Commodity Exchange (TSE: URTS) and its full-year 2024 results were also discussed.
🗄️🇻🇳 AFC Vietnam Fund’s March newsletter noted Vietnam had already begun addressing US trade concerns. Stocks discussed or mentioned (e.g. as the largest positions):
🇻🇳 Lam Dong Mineral and Building Material JSC (HOSE: LBM) - Precasted concrete, tuynel brick, construction stone, refractory material, kaolin & Bentonite
🇻🇳 Agriculture Bank Insurance JSC (HNX: ABI) - Insurance.
🇻🇳 Tng Investment And Trading JSC (HNX: TNG) - Garment maker.
🇻🇳 Dong Hai JSC of Ben Tre (HOSE: DHC) - Manufactures, sells & trades in pulp, kraft paper, paper board & carton packaging products.
🇻🇳 Minh Phu Seafood Corp (HNX: MPC) - Shrimp farming & processing.
🔬🌏 What is the impact of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs? (Aberdeen Investments) - The latest article from Abrdn Asia Focus PLC (LON: AAS) discusses the impact of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs on the portfolio.