EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (April 27, 2025)
Debunking China's claims on luxury brands, “misunderestimate” Asia, India trip report, Middle East investment opportunities, South Africa listed property, Trump 2.0/tariffs, March/Q1 fund updates, etc
I was listening to a podcast the other day that reminded me of a YouTube channel I had forgotten about where a South African and (I think) an American or Canadian ride around China on ADVs filming and talking (realistically…) about living in China.
They now have a new YouTube channel called The China Show and are obviously not living in China any more as they give a realistic point of view about China - not Gordon G. Chang “China is going to collapse soon” kind of propaganda and not the blatant pro-China propaganda you now see all over Twitter/Tik Tok (and often now in the Western anti-Trump/tariff media…). They also make it clear that they back up everything they talk about with footage or from a decade+ of experience living and traveling around China.
In this video from last week, they discussed the videos going around (that I covered last week) about the foreign and luxury brands (in particular) allegedly being made in China:
🎥 They’re Lying! China is Losing The Trade War in a BIG Way - Episode #259 (The China Show) 1:24:13 Minutes (April 2025)
This trade war with China is getting very desperate for China.
Note that its at the 29 minute mark or so is where they breakdown into detail the Chinese disinformation campaign against Western luxury goods makers that uses Tik Tok and Twitter to a lesser degree (paging Elon and the Trump administration!). Again, the targeted brands aren’t even American brands - they are owned by Canadians, British or European companies. In other words, a very strange way to fight a trade war against America and Trump…
They also played a video from someone who has a social media channel where he literally tears apart luxury goods and other brands to analyse the quality of the materials and workmanship. Just from watching the Chinese videos, he knew they were showing knockoffs.
This expert then asked a VERY important question: Since China has access to the same high quality materials that Western luxury brand makers use and obviously have good craftsmen, why don’t they use those materials/craftsmen to just come up with their own luxury brands instead of focusing on making knockoffs of Western ones and Tik Tok videos to sell them???
[In defense of China, they do have ANTA Sports Products (HKG: 2020 / FRA: AS7 / OTCMKTS: ANPDY / OTCMKTS: ANPDF) and Li Ning (HKG: 2331 / FRA: LNLB / LNL / OTCMKTS: LNNGY / LNNGF) to compete with Adidas, Nike, etc.].
In their latest video at the 27 minute mark, The China Show gets to the main topic about how everything built in China during the last 20-30 years (as opposed to 40+ years ago) is starting to fall apart:
🎥 You're About to See China Collapse - In Fact, it's Already Begun - Episode #260 (The China Show) 2:00:05 Minutes (April 2025)
Bridges and buildings fall down as it appears China's poor quality concrete, tofu dreg construction, and cost cutting methods are catching up in a very bad way.
[Note: After watching this, I will no longer be walking directly under the less than 20 year old building on my street corner in Kuala Lumpur because it has cracks in the façade and it looks like pieces of it will eventually fall on someone’s head - like what they show is happening in China… I also see cracks in other buildings that I know are newer…]
A couple of comments on the video were also interesting:
And this was an interesting comment:
They also noted early in the video how self driving is dependent on prediction; but in China, you can’t predict anything you might encounter on a road (including booster rocket parts from the Chinese space program, as they show early in the video, and so called “poppers” who appear out of nowhere on motorcycles and never follow any sort of traffic rules…). Plus EVs (including bikes etc.) or EV batteries in China are always catching on fire there.
In addition, they poured cold water on all the recent propaganda news about Chinese robots (e.g. a recent humanoid robot marathon widely covered by the media and social media - except the part where all but a couple of the robots failed…) - noting that the Japanese have had advanced robots around for well over a decade while the Chinese are now suddenly making robots that are more or less toys to impress the world at how “advanced” China is…
In other words, its worth watching their show IF you want a reality check on China…
As of the end of April, more March or Q1 fund updates have become available (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here) along with new research (although fewer new pieces about tariffs) starting with a non-EM piece:
🔬🇨🇭 The business of looking good (Platinum Asset Management) 2:30 Minutes
One company that's in the business of looking good is Swiss dermatology company, Galderma Group AG (SWX: GALD / FRA: PY30 / OTCMKTS: GDERF), owner of Botox competitor Dysport.
In this video, Nik Dvornak explains the three forces driving Dysport's growth - old people, young people and newly skinny people - and how Galderma can continue to thrive even in the face of tariff-related uncertainty.
New Asia Fund Documents & Research
🔬🌍 Redefining Fixed Income: Asia and emerging markets move into the limelight in 2025? (Aberdeen Investments) - Policy predictability, structural reform, and real yield: how solid foundations can drive returns in Asian fixed income.
🎙️🌍 RTHK Money Talk – Ruchir Desai, Co-Fund Manager of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund Discusses the Impact of U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs on Asian Frontier Markets with Nitin Dialdas (RTHK Money Talk) 7:48 Minutes
🗄️🌍 Fidelity Asian Values Plc (LON: FAS) March monthly factsheet (short economic and portfolio review) noted China and Hong Kong (plus IT and industrials) helped relative returns while overweight exposure to Indonesia detracted as small caps had a sharp fall in share prices.