EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (December 15, 2024)
Finding undervalued compounders in Asia, US Dollar cycle history, emerging Europe opportunities, platinum producers investment trip, global dividend index, Saudi Arabia's transformation, etc.
As of the middle of December, more November factsheets/updates have become available (although I was traveling during the weekend and did not have a chance to get through funds in the Emerging Market Funds section - see our continuously updated post containing all funds is here) plus new research starting with some general research:
🔬🌐 This 38 page ING outlook has some useful tables entitled “The upside risks to our global outlook” and “The downside risks to our global outlook:” ING Global Outlook: ‘Economics, Actually, our 2025 hit list’ - A new US president, a threatened trade war, political turmoil in Europe’s powerhouses… 2025 is shaping up to be another extraordinary year. So, how is all that going to shape global economies and markets? And why might we be pleasantly surprised?
🔬🌐 10 Themes - #10: 11 unlikely events with even more unlikely results (DWS) - For the last of our “10 themes for the year ahead,” we let our thoughts run free. We look at events that are outside our core scenario and sometimes quite radical. The market reactions too could be surprising.
🔬🌐 The 20 page PDF version of this Merrill Lynch report also has useful outlook tables: 2025 Year Ahead: The Advancement Of The Asset-Light Era - For a deeper look at the asset-light economy and what it could mean for your investments in the year ahead, read the CIO’s December Viewpoint, “2025 Year Ahead: The Advancement of the Asset-Light Era.” And be sure to tune in to the Outlook 2025 program “Get ready for what’s next” for a full view of what to expect across sectors, industries and asset classes in the new year and beyond.
New Asia Fund Documents & Research
Asia Frontier Capital has posted their November newsletter (detailed economic and portfolio): AFC Asia Frontier Fund Reaches a New All-Time High NAV - November 2024 Update
📈🌏 AFC Asia Frontier Fund’s November newsletter discussed recent parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka (which will hopefully lead to political and economic stability) plus the KSE-100 Index in Pakistan hitting a milestone by crossing 100,000 for the first time ever were discussed. Markets that were positive contributors included Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Iraq, Bangladesh, and Georgia while Mongolia and Uzbekistan were negative contributors. Several stocks not mentioned by name were either mentioned or discussed - including Australia listed Timor-Leste manganese asset owner Estrella Resources Ltd (ASX: ESR).
📈🇮🇶 AFC Iraq Fund’s November newsletter (economic and portfolio) discussed how strong net profit and shareholder equity growth of the top companies in the market has been underpinning the market’s multi-month rally plus the relative stability the country has enjoyed over the last few years has provided a stable and predictable macroeconomic framework for businesses and individuals to operate in.
📈🇺🇿 AFC Uzbekistan Fund’s November newsletter discussed the secondary offering for The Uzbek Commodity Exchange (TSE: URTS) by the Uzbek government and how local stock and bond quotations and financial data are now hosted on Bloomberg with a one-hour delay (with next step being the integration with Clearstream).
📈🇻🇳 AFC Vietnam Fund’s November newsletter discussed rumours that led to a sell-off in bank stocks, positive and negative impacts a Trump presidency will have on Vietnam, and the North-South high-speed railway project. Stocks briefly mentioned included Lam Dong Mineral and Building Material JSC (HOSE: LBM), stationery maker Thien Long Group Corp (HOSE: TLG), Agriculture Bank Insurance JSC (HNX: ABI), Minh Phu Seafood Corp (HNX: MPC), and Mercedes car dealer Hang Xanh Motors Service JSC (HOSE: HAX).