EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (February 2, 2025)
China stocks as a Trump trade, China market terms explained, India valuations, South Africa optimism, DeepSeek's impact on EMs/Europe, re-risking Eastern European stocks, how to spot bubbles, etc.
As of the start of February, more December/Q4 fund updates (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here) are available plus there are a number of interesting podcasts/webinars/talks that I have gotten to listening to and have included (I will be adding more stocks to our Frontier & Emerging Market Stock Index this week). Starting with some non-EM focused pieces:
π¬π This Baillie Gifford webinar has a transcript: AI revolution: decades of innovation behind the 'overnight' success (27:39 Minutes) - AI is revolutionising industries across the globe, but how is it also reshaping the companies we invest in? From healthcare to chip manufacturing, investment specialist Stewart Hogg explores the transformative potential of AI and the strategic investments driving long-term growth.
π¬π Opportunities in US wealth management (Coronation Funds) - How Interactive Brokers Group (NASDAQ: IBKR), LPL Financial Holdings (NASDAQ: LPLA) and Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) are capitalising on emerging trends.
π¬π Could Ryanair take off? β analysis from Henderson European Trust (Janus Henderson Investors) - As consumer sentiment slowly recovers, we think the temptation to jet off could prove hard to resistβ¦ Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ: RYAAY)
π¬π The Aristotle List: 10 Improbable but Possible Outcomes for 2025 (Invesco) - It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. The mixed market mood at the end of 2024 is reflected in our list of surprises (these hypothetical predictions are our views of what could happen even if they do not form part of our central scenario).
π¬π Global equities series: An America-first world order and global markets (Invesco) - This is the first of an eight-part series that covers the themes and challenges facing global equities in the second Trump administration. Part 1 covers the impact of an America-first world order while Part 2 looks at Trumpism's issues. In Part 3 we delve into immigration, the Federal workforce and US labor markets. Part 4 unpacks deregulation, oil demand and inflation pressures. Part 5 covers the US fiscal policy, debt and deficit and Part 6 looks at foreign economic policies and trade concerns. In Part 7 we deep dive into geopolitics and geoeconomics and Part 8 unpacks portfolio diversification in America-first global equity markets.
π¬ποΈπ Swan Lake: The Risks that Would Most Disrupt Consensus in 2025 + Searching for Black Swans (18:42 Minutes) (New York Life Investments) - A black swan is a high-impact, unpredictable event that disrupts investor consensus. Investor attention around them may ebb and flow, but these events always can, at any time and with no warning, upend entrenched economic narratives and reset market expectations. Read the report and listen to the podcast to hear our views.
π¬ποΈπ―π΅ South Africa based Ninety One SA has this video plus write up: Nintendo: an innovative giant (3:41 Minutes) - Gaming isnβt just fun; it can deliver compelling returns. Abrie Pretorius explains why Nintendo Co Ltd (TYO: 7974 / FRA: NTO / OTCMKTS: NTDOF)βs ability to continually innovate has helped build an unmatched portfolio of titles and lock in an army of adoring customers.