EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (January 12, 2025)
China stimulus fatigue, easing Asia-Pacific fundraising challenges, bonfire of the incumbent politicians, frontier market bonds, opportunities in Indian stocks, December + Q4 fund updates, etc.
As of the start of the new year, new December and Q4 fund updates (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here with October research pieces now removed…) along with plenty of new research pieces have become available:
🔬🌐 abrdn has this piece published just before the California fires hit: Five key considerations for insurance investment in the evolving economic landscape of 2025 - Insurance companies need to adapt to expected macroeconomic changes driven by a new Trump presidency by focusing on fixed income opportunities, diversifying assets and staying vigilant about regulatory changes.
🔬🌐 Baillie Gifford has this reality check: The concentration conundrum: challenge or opportunity?
Market concentration in the largest companies, such as the ‘Magnificent Seven’, has dominated returns, posing challenges for active managers.
Investing heavily in these mega-caps can limit opportunities for potentially more promising investments elsewhere.
Exceptional growth opportunities often lie in less researched companies, such as Sweetgreen (NYSE: SG), DoorDash (NASDAQ: DASH) and Cloudflare (NYSE: NET).
🔬🇬🇧 Janus Henderson Investors also has this piece mentioning or discussing several UK based stocks: Meet the super six stocks outpacing the Mag 7 - The UK market may not be known for its dynamism, but its shareholder-friendliness has stood out over the last three years. Here, we discuss how this has impacted Henderson High Income.
🔬🌐 GAM Investments has this report: Outlook 2025: Navigating Volatility
Invesco has these pieces:
🔬🌐 Uncommon truths 2024: a year in review - The central bank easing cycle started in 2024, helping to make the year rewarding for many investors. If only the same could be said for my Aristotle List of 10 surprises.
🔬🌐 FX Pulse: Looking for peak dollar 2025 Q1 - Our favoured currencies and favoured hedging activity over the next 3 and 12 months
🔬🌐 A new year begins, and geopolitical instability continues - 2024 was also a year of better-than-expected stock market performance, and I expect 2025 to be another positive year with performance broadening from what we saw last year. Where else might the trends from 2024 extend into 2025? Follow along to find out.
🔬🌐 Global Risks 2025: Turning Points? (MetLife Investment Management) - As the dust from the U.S. election settles, the new year brings new challenges. Tariffs are likely to be the dominant theme early in 2025. Our base case is for the incoming Trump administration to impose substantial — albeit not universal — tariffs on most countries.
New Asia Fund Documents & Research
Asia Frontier Capital’s latest monthly newsletter (detailed economic and portfolio) is from the end of December (Another Solid Year for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund and AFC Iraq Fund - December 2024 Update):
📈🌏 AFC Asia Frontier Fund’s December newsletter noted that Iraq, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka were among the best-performing stock markets globally in 2024. No specific stocks were mentioned by name.
📈🇻🇳 AFC Vietnam Fund’s December newsletter gave a detailed analysis of Vietnam’s economic recovery in 2024, discussed how FDI reached a record high in 2024, why the VN-Index did not fully reflect Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024, and gave a 2025 outlook. Stationery maker Thien Long Group Corp (HOSE: TLG) and Mercedes car dealer Hang Xanh Motors Service JSC (HOSE: HAX) were also discussed plus the fund’s largest positions were mentioned.
📈🇮🇶 AFC Iraq Fund’s December newsletter (economic and portfolio) gave a detailed outlook for 2025.
📈🇺🇿 AFC Uzbekistan Fund’s December newsletter gave a 2024 summary and a 2025 outlook plus discussed The Uzbek Commodity Exchange (TSE: URTS), steel producer Uzmetkombinat (TSE: UZMK), Toshkentvino (TSE: TKVK), and Qizilqum Cement (TSE: QZSM).