EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (January 26, 2025)
China investing now a tactical game, what Trump means for EMs + China, Sri Lanka trip report, 2 Polish stocks, European companies become more shareholder friendly, more December/Q4 fund updates, etc.
As of late January before the start of CNY, more December and Q4 fund updates have dropped (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here) plus more 2025 outlooks and other research starting with some non-EM focused pieces:
🔬🌐 2025 Outlook (Cambridge Associates) - 2025 stands at a crossroads. In the prior year, nearly half of the world’s population across more than 70 countries participated in national elections, artificial intelligence gained considerable traction in the marketplace, and several central banks initiated a synchronized interest rate-cutting cycle. Each of these developments alone creates a complex landscape for investors to navigate. Yet, the situation is further complicated by heightened geopolitical risks and an investment environment brimming with uncertainties. Will the impressive performance of US equities continue? Can private equity and venture capital achieve better results? What does the future hold for credit markets? In the following pages, we answer these questions and many others across all asset classes as we present our 2025 Outlook.
🎙️🌐 This Guggenheim Investments podcast has a transcript: Macro Markets Podcast Episode 62: 10 Macro Themes for 2025 (and a Quick Fed Update) - Patricia Zobel, Head of our Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy Group, joins Macro Markets to discuss our 10 Macro Themes likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.
🔬🌍 Opportunities amid Europe’s gloomy outlook (Nuveen) - Europe is struggling in the shadows of U.S. exceptionalism. The continent faces headwinds of fiscal uncertainty, structural growth challenges and trade policy uncertainty. While there are few catalysts to spur growth in 2025, there are opportunities for investors to stay selective in portfolios.
🔬🌐 U.S. Onshoring and its Impact on U.S.-Centric Companies (William Blair) - For thousands of years, civilization has benefited from some form of globalization. Historians may point to the establishment of the Silk Road in the 2nd century B.C.E. as the true initiation of trade from one region of the world to another. But advancements in transportation, freedom of the seas, and global growth have driven demand for more diverse goods, often at considerably lower costs, and geographic diversification from a manufacturing risk-mitigation perspective. It has been a win-win for both consumers and commercial establishments. What could possibly go wrong?
New Asia Fund Documents & Research
🔬🇱🇰 This trip report discussed progress in Sri Lanka as well as John Keells Holdings PLC (CSE: JKH)’s and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd (NASDAQ: MLCO)’s Cinnamon Life City of Dreams integrated casino resort project: Sri Lanka Moving from Stability to Growth – AFC on the Road – Sri Lanka - December 2024 (AFC) - As part of our on-the-ground research process, Ruchir Desai, Co-Fund Manager of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund, visited Colombo in December 2024 to meet with the fund’s portfolio companies and policymakers.
🎬 Asian Frontier Markets Update (AFC) January 2025
00:00 - Thomas Hugger - Introduction
02:16 - Ruchir Desai – AFC Asia Frontier Fund
22:19 - Ahmed Tabaqchali – AFC Iraq Fund
34:10 - Scott Osheroff – AFC Uzbekistan Fund
40:27 - Vicente Nguyen – AFC Vietnam Fund
50:17 - Q&A