EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (July 6, 2025)
Computex Taiwan trip report, Vietnam’s EM upgrade opportunity, Latin American stocks, Brazil rewiring its economy, Dollar's shifting landscape, natural gas outlook more buoyant than oil, etc.
Martin Armstrong (Armstrong Economics) and Ed Dowd are two financial gurus who are always making the rounds in the alt-finance podcast space (search YouTube or Rumble for their names to find their latest interviews) and are always worth listening to (although Armstrong tends to repeat the same stories over and over again…) as they give realistic analysis plus they don’t need to spend their time trying to sell gold, silver or crypto (that doesn’t mean the podcasts they appear on aren’t trying to sell you gold, silver or crypto…).
In his most recent interviews, Edward Dowd made some good points about the US Dollar (no, its not going to “collapse” like many claim in order to sell gold, silver or crypto…) and demographics/debt (e.g. China especially has a bad demographic and debt problem while Korea and Japan are outright disasters…):
🎥 Edward Dowd: U.S. is Heading For a Deep Recession Driven by Housing (Palisades Gold Radio) 51:18 Minutes (July 2025)
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Edward Dowd, founder of Phinance Technologies, to the show to discuss the unfolding economic landscape and the probable looming recession. Dowd explains that initial recession predictions for late 2023 and early 2024 were incorrect due to an unprecedented economic variable: mass illegal immigration. He estimates that between 20 million people were brought into the U.S. over three-and-a-half years, supported by deficit spending ranging from $500 billion to $2 trillion. This influx of labor and spending temporarily propped up the economy, masking underlying weaknesses, particularly in the housing market. However, with the Trump administration now halting immigration flows and initiating deportations, Dowd expects a significant economic impact. Housing, which constitutes 20% of the consumption economy and 45% of the CPI, is already rolling over, with new home sales plummeting and delinquencies rising. Dowd predicts this will lead to a housing-driven recession, similar to the 2008 crisis but less systemic, barring an oil price shock.
Inflation, which Dowd believes is overstated due to faulty shelter cost metrics, is expected to fall below 2% by year-end. This deflationary trend will likely prompt the Fed to cut rates, but Dowd warns that rate cuts during an economic downturn are bearish for stocks, as seen in 2000 and 2008. He advises investors to focus on U.S. Treasury bonds and gold, which is being re-monetized as a tier-one capital asset. Dowd also highlights the potential for fiscal dominance to worsen, with governments globally struggling under unsustainable debt burdens. He points to Europe and Japan as particularly vulnerable due to demographic declines and debt crises, which could lead to currency collapses or conflicts. In the U.S., he emphasizes the need for fiscal discipline and warns that the current debt trajectory, exacerbated by the Biden administration’s spending, will require painful adjustments. Despite the challenges, Dowd sees opportunities for younger generations should a reset come for the housing markets and for investors during the eventual market correction.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:36 - Metrics & U.S Outlook
00:05:16 - Real Estate & Oil Crisis
00:08:04 - U.S. Employment Stats
00:11:47 - Fiscal Hangover & DXY
00:14:34 - Fear & Dollar Safety?
00:15:30 - Fiscal Dominance & Fed
00:17:47 - Asset Allocation Changes
00:19:27 - CPI & Fed Reactions
00:25:50 - Powell's Replacment & Q.E.
00:27:23 - Recession & Risk Assets
00:28:48 - Conflicts, Truth, & Timing
00:32:16 - Gold's Behavior & Oil
00:34:05 - Trump, Threats, Econ Shocks
00:36:24 - Finding Good Information
00:39:41 - Distractions & Geopolitics
00:40:13 - Euro & Asian Demographics
00:45:12 - Taxes & Gov't Desperation
00:47:44 - Macro Econ. Alt. Hedge Fund
00:48:48 - Depressions & Commodities
00:50:05 - Wrap Up
Dowd predicts that as long as the U.S. Dollar Index holds above the 89.10 level (approximately where I have the line in the following charts), the Dollar will remain in a longer term bull market and will soon rip higher:
In one of Martin Armstrong’s latest interviews, he has also stated a prediction that the dollar will bottom out in about a month’s time.
Note that Armstrong also will often talk about how every country except the USA regularly cancels their currency (e.g. Europe’s Practice of Cancelling Currency – The Dirty Little Secret Everyone Overlooks, What Makes the Dollar the World’s Reserve Currency?, etc.) and that’s why everyone wants to hold US Dollars (plus the US has the largest economy in the world while debt to GDP is not that bad compared to many other countries).
As of the start of June, some new May and June fund updates or annual reports have dropped (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here - April research has been removed) along with new research starting again with more pieces pushing Europe (from fund managers who don’t listen to alt-finance podcasts…):
🔬🇪🇺 Has the European Commission taken a big step forward with EU securitisation? (Janus Henderson) - Portfolio Managers Ian Bettney and Robert Schramm-Fuchs give some insight into the EU's proposed securitisation reforms and discuss whether the simplified regulation framework goes far enough to revitalise the market.
🔬🇬🇧 UK equity managers’ crisis of faith might be nearly over (Janus Henderson) - Laura Foll, co- manager of Lowland Investment Company, shares her thoughts on why the crisis of faith in UK equities might be nearing its end.
🇬🇧 Renold plc (LON: RNO / 32ID / FRA: 7M5) - Industrial chain, gearboxes & couplings for power transmission, lifting, conveying & processing applications.
🇬🇧 H&T Group PLC (LON: HAT) - UK’s largest pawnbroker & a leading retailer of high quality new & pre-owned jewellery and watches.
🇬🇧 Spectris plc (LON: SXS / FRA: FA9 / OTCMKTS: SEPJF) - Precision instrumentation & controls. 🇼
🇬🇧 Johnson Matthey PLC (LON: JMAT / FRA: JMT2 / OTCMKTS: JMPLF) - Speciality chemicals & sustainable technologies. 🇼
🔬🇪🇺 Reimagining the Single Market: Part One (UBS AM) - Exploring the ways Europe can regain its competitiveness in a challenging and uncertain world.
🔬🇪🇺 Reimagining the single market: part two (UBS AM) - In the second part of our interview, Professor Letta discusses his proposals for joint investment in public goods, fiscal policy, the prospect of a capital markets union and much more.
New Asia Fund Documents & Research
🗄️🌏 Apollo Asia Fund’s Typhoon time (Apollo Asia Fund: the manager's report for 2Q25) did not mention any specific stocks. It noted Asian students are now opting to study closer to home (e.g. Hong Kong universities are seeing an influx despite the new security law), again mentioned cable thefts in Malaysia (something the fund managers has personally had to deal with and is now even delaying and raising the cost of national infrastructure like the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project), how unprecedented conditions call for entrepreneurial flexibility, etc.