EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (March 2, 2025)
Brazil Stocks' Brazil Value Talks, another EM fund goes ex-China, Hong Kong trip, Indian telecoms, Israel stocks, Tunisia, gold + commodities surge, more Deepseek/AI/tariff pieces, etc.
I have updated our Frontier & Emerging Market Stock Index (with stocks from these posts) and it now has 1,600+ tagged stocks plus additional stocks not tagged for a total of 2084+ mostly EM/FM stocks:
In addition, the Brazil Stocks Substack (“Former Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 20 years investing in Brazil Stock Market”) has contacted me asking for a recommendation for their Substack.
What I like about their Substack is their Brazil Value Talks series with various Brazilian investors (I have been saving them in my inbox and I have been meaning to read through them - I’ve suggested they put these in a separate section of the Substack to make them easier to find and read). They remind me of the book: "The Warren Buffetts Next Door - The World's Greatest Investors You've Never Heard Of and What You Can" - only with an emerging markets twist as its Brazilian investors…
Note that everything (the investor’s background, strategy, resources used, etc.) up to where they start talking about individual stocks is not paywalled and I have included interviewee links (Twitter, linktr, etc.) below (as the original posts just had a screenshot of their Twitter profile):
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Pedro Poncinelli
Multiplied Invested Capital by 2x in 5 Years @Poncinellipedro
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Cristiane Fensterseifer, CNPI, CGA
Performed 5x Ibovespa in 4 Years
/ @crisinveste investe10.com.br
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Luigi Micales, CGA
Performed 1.6x Ibovespa in 3 Years @lmicales / bswan.com.br
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Diego Lucindo
Multiplied Invested Capital by 2x in 2 Years
Multiplied Invested Capital by 132x in 4 Years @JJJJames16 / tc.tradersclub.com.br/@ojjjjames
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Mestre Don
Performed 7x Ibovespa in 2 Years @Mestre_Don
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Bruno Belmonte Poggere
Multiplied Invested Capital by 4x in 5 Years @BrunoPoggere
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Sergio Machado (MAG Cash FIRF LP)
Performed 109% CDI with Low Vol in 10 years @SMgestor / @SMgestorFUNDOS
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Vance Silveira
Great learnings from multiplying the invested capital by 4.5x in 3 years and returning almost all the accumulated return @VanceEquities
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Rafael Nogueira Pinto (MHT Private)
Multiplied Invested Capital by 12x in 7 Years @RafaMHTinvest /
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Alexandre Assaf (A40 Investment Club)
Multiplied Invested Capital by 3x in 7 Years @AlexandreAssali
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Patrick Pasek (TC - Transparent Account)
Multiplied Invested Capital by 2x in 2 Years @patrickpasek / @tcinvestimentos
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Diego Sullivan (Simples Investidor)
Multiplied Invested Capital by 6x in 6 Years @SimplesInvestor
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Pedro Henrique Dias Ferreira (Investidor SA)
Multiplied Invested Capital by 13x in 5 Years linktr.ee/investidorsa / youtube.com/investidorsa / @investidor_sa
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Fernando Kling
Multiplied Invested Capital by 18x in 2 Years @fernandokling / linktr.ee/fkling
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Rodrigo Medeiros (DesmistificandoFII)
Multiplied Invested Capital by 2x in 5 Years @DesmistificaFII / linktr.ee/DesmistificandoFII
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Daniel Salomão
Multiplied Invested Capital by 4x in 5 Years in USD @DanielsalomaoB
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Lucas Uhlig
Multiplied Invested Capital by 6x in 4.5 Years @lucasuhlig / @tcinvestimentos
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Fernando Marx
Multiplied Invested Capital by 13x in 4 Years @Fernandomarxk
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Kevin Gervasoni
Multiplied Invested Capital by 23x in 6 Years @KevinGervasoni / @tcinvestimentos / tc.com.br
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Anderson Lueders (Real Investor Asset Management)
The Brazilian Charlie Munger @Small__Caps / realinvestor.com.br
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Gabriel Negraes
Multiplied Invested Capital by 16x in 4 Years @gabriel_negraes
Multiplied Invested Capital by 66x in 7 Years @jairmatoso
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Pedro Perin
Multiplied Invested Capital by 30x in 7.5 Years @perinplobato
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Victor Kietzmann Jr.
Multiplied Invested Capital by 264x in 6 Years @victorkj / @portalsmallcaps / smallcaps.com.br
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Thalis Saint'Yves
Multiplied Invested Capital by 9,500x in 17 Years @ThalisYves
💻 Brazil Value Talks: Ric Reich
Multiplied Invested Capital by 3x in 4 Years @ric_reich / linktr.ee/ricreich
Of course and as with the The Warren Buffetts Next Door, the indicated returns probably should be taken with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, its always interesting to read about the careers and investment strategies of not so famous or overhyped well connected oligarchs people like Buffett…
As of the start of March, more January fund updates (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here - December 2024 research have been removed) and new research has become available starting with some AI pieces:
🎙️🌐 There is a transcript for this podcast: DeepSeek and the AI arms race (State Street) 35 Minutes - Does DeepSeek represent a game-changer for the AI industry? What geopolitical implications might it have? And how does its arrival impact existing market players in the IT ecosystem? To discuss these topics and more on the future of the AI industry, we’re joined by Richard Windsor, founder and CEO of Radio Free Mobile – an independent research firm specializing in the digital and mobile ecosystem.
🔬🌐 This is an academic piece: Can ChatGPT Outsmart the Market? (University of North Texas) - This paper evaluates the performance of portfolios generated by ChatGPT-4o over a six-month period, from June 3, 2024, to December 31, 2024. ChatGPT-4o was tasked with creating three distinct investment portfolios with varying horizons: short-term (updated biweekly), intermediate-term (updated monthly), and long-term (static). Portfolio adjustments were based solely on ChatGPT-4o's outputs, without the inclusion of external data. The results reveal that all portfolios outperformed the S&P 500 in cumulative returns, driven by higher risk exposure. However, capital asset pricing model regression results indicate nonsignificant alpha values, suggesting that excess returns were not consistent beyond market movements. These findings align with the Efficient Market Hypothesis, highlighting the difficulty of sustained outperformance in efficient markets. While the study demonstrates ChatGPT-4o's potential in bullish environments, limitations such as the exclusion of transaction costs and reliance on closing prices warrant caution. Future research should explore more diverse market conditions and refined AI-driven strategies.
New Asia Fund Documents & Research
📯🌐🇨🇳 Hopping onto the ex-China bandwagon (but China also accounts for 30% of the EM classification), I just received an email announcing the abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund, Inc. is now the abrdn Emerging Markets ex-China Fund, Inc. (NYSE: AEF):
Unlock the potential for enhanced risk-adjusted equity returns by investing in dynamic emerging markets outside of China, abrdn Emerging Markets ex-China Fund, Inc. (AEF). AEF will now:
Be the only U.S. closed-end fund offering the emerging markets ex-China strategy
Maintain our proprietary bottom-up, fundamental investment style
Continue to utilize abrdn’s research teams located worldwide in London, Singapore, São Paulo, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and other key locales.
Offer a 10% distribution rate on NAV, based on the average NAV for the previous three months, beginning with its quarterly distribution payable in March 2025.
🎙️🌐🇨🇳 A more detailed explanation for the changes: abrdn AEF Fund Update February 2025 (abrdn) 17:21 Minutes - Nick Robinson, Portfolio Manager, joins Mike Taggart to discuss recent changes to the AEF's investment strategy.