EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (November 17, 2023)
An interesting indicator that is pointing up for China’s economy, re-evaluating the investment case for China, more funds have updated their factsheets to cover the month of October, etc.
Some quick takes from this shorter than usual post:
Some interesting webinars or podcast interviews - including two focused on a popular Eastern European and a Latin American stock.
An interesting indicator that is pointing up for China’s economy.
More funds have updated their factsheets to cover the month of October.
In a recent podcast interview, a fund manager noted how they are re-evaluating the investment case for China e.g. taking a blank sheet of paper, looking at the companies they want to follow, and taking a fresh perspective of what has happened since 2020 (e.g. the regulatory crackdowns, etc.). They are seeing pockets of growth and profitability as fundamental investors vs. “growth at any costs bubbles.” However, there are some things they still need to see before they move from an underweight position in the country.
Another interesting observation made: They are also overweight in Mexico, albeit he is worried about how themes can turn into bubbles. However, their checks have shown that nearshoring is a real and a long term sustainable trend. Mexican equities are also not that expensive and the Peso is well supported.
I have finally returned from visiting Kyoto and Tokyo, but will fly to the USA at the end of the weekend. So next week’s posts might also be a little slow and like this one, shorter than normal. But after that, I will have plenty of time to get caught up on other posts plus write up some trip reports about Japan and Taiwan - no more expiring frequent flyer miles that must be used for inconvenient flights!
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For a further disclaimer and an explanation of the reasoning behind these posts: DISCLAIMER: EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries Posts.
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🗄️ Fund documents / updates; ⚠️ Disclosures or restricted access e.g. based on your location, investor status, etc.; 🎥 Video; 🎙️ Podcast; 🎬 Webinar; 📰 Newspaper/magazine article; 🗃️ Archived article; 📯 Press release; 🔬 Research analysis (including articles/blog posts from fund managers, etc.)
This is an interesting index provided by Macrobond:
🔬 Our geopolitical risk index is spiking again (Macrobond)
The situation in Gaza has driven the risk index sharply higher, but it remains well below the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
Last Tuesday’s webinar should be available on demand once you register:
🎬 Why EM Bonds Now (Van Eck) 1:15:00 Hours (November)
The Fund’s investment process – how to find cheap bonds
The case for EM debt - EM debt’s historical performance compared to the other major debt categories warrants much higher allocations to EM debt
China’s re-opening combined with high carry is good for EM bonds’ outlook
The latest monthly newsletter (economic and portfolio) is from the end of October. It noted how many countries in their universe are already past the worst in their macro-economic environments and are in a better position to handle any commodity price shock.
Once again, also check out: AFC Quarterly Update Webinar Presentation Slides - Wednesday, 25th October 2023