EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (November 22, 2023)
A number of African frontier market stocks, recent podcasts or webinars (covering emerging markets, China, India, Africa, and the uranium market) plus fund research pieces, etc.
Some quick takes from this post as I get caught up on podcasts and fund research pieces:
A number of African frontier market stocks mentioned in a recent podcast with some being relatively easy to invest in as they trade on major international exchanges.
A number of interesting recent podcasts or webinars covering emerging markets (in general), China, India, Africa, and the uranium market. Some have transcripts available for those who don’t have time to listen while this post highlights some key points for others.
A number of interesting emerging market research pieces from various fund managers that contain good charts or tables.
A few more emerging or frontier market funds that provide good commentary for investors have been added to these posts along with the dates for their last factsheets or commentaries.
In a recent webinar, it was mentioned how over the past 20 years, an emerging market portfolio that was 60% in emerging markets (ex-China) and 40% in China has proven to be very efficient. Even though China is more risky than the rest of EM ex-China, blending a 60-40 weighting gave investors less risk and higher returns as the country has outperformed the rest of EM over the longer term.
Of course, past returns are no indicator of future performance and 40% is still a high weighting for China. But this sort of strategy might make more sense for bigger EM investors or fund managers than completely abandoning China.
In another recent podcast, a money manager noted how the exposure of Chinese financial institutions to the property market is more than what they declare and how Xi is impatient. He thinks the property market problems will continue for some time and is actually more interested in investing in the rest of Asia even though the deeper value is now in China.
Finally, another interesting thought was his belief that most companies have a 20 year lifespan and that’s been shortening. However, AI has extended the life of some companies e.g. certain names in the tech space.
Disclaimer. The information and views contained on this website and newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and/or a recommendation. Your use of any content is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the content. Seek a duly licensed professional for any investment advice. I may have positions in the investments covered. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any investment mentioned.
For a further disclaimer and an explanation of the reasoning behind these posts: DISCLAIMER: EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries Posts.
Note: Where possible, company links are to their respective investor relations or corporate pages. Region and country links are to our ADR or ETF pages where there are further country specific resources (e.g. links to local stock markets and media websites). Please report any bad links in the comments section.
🗄️ Fund documents / updates; ⚠️ Disclosures or restricted access e.g. based on your location, investor status, etc.; 🎥 Video; 🎙️ Podcast; 🎬 Webinar; 📰 Newspaper/magazine article; 🗃️ Archived article; 📯 Press release; 🔬 Research analysis (including articles/blog posts from fund managers, etc.)
Some of these recent research reports on emerging markets in general might be of interest along with the numerous charts or tables they contain:
🔬 Emerging Markets: Positive Signs Even As China Slows (Capital Group) October 2023
🔬 Sentiment Versus Fundamentals: The Current Case for EM over U.S. Equity (Acadian Asset Management LLC) October 2023
🔬 Change Things Up: Is Now The Time To Diversify Into Emerging Markets? (PGIM Quantitative Solutions) October 2023
In this short podcast from Moody’s, four credit themes among other topics were discussed:
🎙️ Season 3 Episode 25 - Economic considerations underpin stable emerging market 2024 outlook (Moody’s Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded) 15:06 Minutes (November 2023)
EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China’s slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.
Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
At around the 11:30 minute mark: Emerging market banks were discussed. They have negative outlooks on 20% of banking systems and positive outlooks on only 2%. They think the environment will deteriorate the most for banks in China and Africa. For banks in other emerging markets, they think loan quality along with profits may only decrease moderately.