EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (October 13, 2024)
China's stimulus (or more of the same?), why growth stock investors can't ignore China, foreigner investors still cautious on South Africa, EM local currency bonds, fund Q3 updates start to drop, etc.
A quick update about Substack improvements for readers/writers and improvements to this weekly emailed post:
All new weekly fund updates and research will continue to be emailed out weekly after being updated to a EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries page pinned at the top of the EM Fund Stock Picks section. That (more lengthy) page will have specific stock names and tickers (linked to an IR page and a quote provider such as Yahoo! Finance) discussed until there is an update to replace it while research pieces will be kept on that page for the current and previous two months (or so - assuming I don’t hit post length limits as then Substack posts stop saving…).
Substack’s new autogenerated table of contents page (based on a post’s headings/subheadings) is extremely helpful BUT only seems to appear on a desktop web browser on the left side of the screen as lines (to paid subscribers in paid subscriber only posts) that must be clicked on to appear. However, I am not seeing it appear on a mobile web browser (which is probably what most readers use nowadays for general web surfing/reading). I don’t use the Substack app so have no idea what posts look like on it.
In addition to autogenerated table of contents appearing in the left corner on desktop browsers, I have embedded it into the EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries page itself e.g.:
Hitting a link in this contents (or the autogenerated one on the left side of the screen) will take you to that particular spot in the post while hitting a browser’s back button will take you back to the spot in a post where you previously were.
Note to Substack writers: There appears to be no way of autogenerating a table of contents for a post based on headings/subheadings until after publishing. I suppose a post can be published without emailing, then the autogenerated contents can be copy pasted into the post itself (for the benefit of mobile web browser users, etc), and then the post can be emailed out…
With that noted and as we enter mid-October, more Q3 fund updates are starting to drop while the China stimulus is a key research or podcast focus:
🔬🌐 This Natixis Investment Managers report has a good table starting on page 11 listing asset classes, their convictions, and some bullet point comments: Mirova monthly market review – September 2024
🔬🌐 Invesco has this piece: 10 things for investors to watch in the fourth quarter
🔬🌐 This Lazard piece mentioned a number of European stocks - many derive revenue from EMs and might interest readers not familiar with European stocks: Europe’s Stock Markets: Challenging Misperceptions
For many investors, Europe’s stock markets are associated with old-economy, low-growth sectors. But this fails to recognise how considerably the profile of the European market has changed in recent years.
Europe has developed a greater emphasis on growth sectors with a global earnings dimension. This is driving increased financial productivity and a more resilient earnings profile.
Yet the region’s stock markets continue to remain modestly valued on an absolute basis and relative to other developed markets. At some point soon, we believe this anomalous situation will begin to unwind.
New Asia Fund Documents & Research
AFC has the following September updates:
📈🌏 AFC Asia Frontier Fund September newsletter (detailed economic and portfolio) (Start of U.S. Fed Easing Cycle Positive for Asian Frontier Markets - September 2024 Update) noted Iraq, Sri Lanka, Mongolia, Pakistan, and Vietnam were positive contributors while Kazakhstan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, and Bangladesh negative contributors. Stocks were discussed without their names being given.
📈🇻🇳 AFC Vietnam Fund’s September newsletter discussed Typhoon Yagi (which hit insurers BaoViet Holdings (HOSE: BVH), PVI Holdings (HNX: PVI), Military Insurance Corp (HOSE: MIG), BIDV Insurance Corp (HOSE: BIC), and Agriculture Bank Insurance JSC (HNX: ABI)), macro-economic numbers, Vietnam’s emerging market status update, and the impact of the FED rate cut.
📈🇮🇶 AFC Iraq Fund’s September newsletter (economic and portfolio) noted the continued rally of the Iraq stock market - despite all the conflict in the Middle East. The expansionary 2023 and 2024 budgets are helping the non-oil economy while banking continues to develop - leading to strong profit growth for the leading companies in the country.
📈🇺🇿 AFC Uzbekistan Fund’s September newsletter discussed how Hungarian bank OTP Bank (BUD: OTPB / FRA: OTP / OTCMKTS: OTPBF) (with local subsidiary Ipoteka Bank (TSE: IPTB)) became a registered member of the capital markets sandbox regime, and the government’s announced secondary offering of 4.44% of the The Uzbek Commodity Exchange (TSE: URTS).