EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (October 27 2024)
China biotech licensing deals, CEE banks, hidden EM gems, EM master class, South African retailers + other growth opportunities, how Gen Z is shaping India, various fund EM-Int'l fund Q3 updates, etc.
As of late October, a larger number of international funds have their Q3 letters available along with other research or podcasts worth noting (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here):
🔬🎙️🌐 Although they might not cover EMs much, Oaktree memos are always a good read (plus they can be listened to) and this one begins with him on a trip to Australia: Ruminating on Asset Allocation - In his latest memo, Howard Marks outlines the need to base asset allocation decisions around an established risk target. He describes the fundamental differences between ownership and debt, as well as the importance of finding the combination of the two that gets an investor’s portfolio to the desired position on the risk/return continuum. Finally, he expands on the increased utility of debt investments in today’s portfolios.
🎙️🌐 Oaktree’s co-founder was also recently interviewed: Secrets of Legendary Investor Howard Marks (#219): 3 Takeaways (21:20 Minutes) - Warren Buffett doesn’t need investment advice. But he does listen to fellow billionaire and co-founder of Oaktree Capital, Howard Marks. Here, the legendary investor shares his insights on the market, the psychology of investing, why low interest rates can lead to unwise behavior, and why “always good, sometimes great, never terrible” describes his remarkable career.
🔬🌐 Invesco has this piece with a number of useful tables, including “Currency forecasts and hedging strategies versus USD” & “12-Month currency hedging decision matrix:” FX Pulse: 2024 Q4 - The big ease - The Fed has joined the easing party and we expect it to ease more aggressively than other central banks over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, we think BOJ tightening will make JPY the strongest among major currencies.
🔬🌐 This Natixis report has a section covering the Central and Eastern European banking sector: Mirova monthly market review & outlook – October 2024
📈🌐 St. James Investment Company’s Value Investor Q3 2024 Letter has a good discussion of how the Florida land boom back in the 1920s exemplifies speculative mania - and what that means current current bubbles where investors ignore traditional valuation metrics in favor of short-term gains.
New Asia Fund Documents & Research
Abrdn has these pieces:
🔬🌏 What “active share” says about our investment process - Gabriel Sacks, Manager of Abrdn Asia Focus PLC, discusses the concept of "active share" and its significance in active versus passive investment strategies.
🔬🌏 Asia-Pacific real estate market outlook Q4 2024 - We have raised our near-term total return forecasts for APAC’s property market.
🔬🇯🇵 Japanese property yields: is the only way up? - The unwinding of Japan’s ultra-low interest-rate policy has raised some questions about the impact on real estate. But rental growth may play a bigger role in driving Japanese property yields.
📈🌏 Abrdn Asia Focus PLC (LON: AAS)’s September monthly factsheet (detailed economic and portfolio) discussed a number of Chinese, Hong Kong, Korean, Thai (such as generic pharma brands and supplements maker Mega Lifesciences PCL (BKK: MEGA) and Humanica PCL (BKK: HUMAN / HUMAN-F)), Vietnamese, and Indian stocks.