EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (July 20, 2025)
Japanese share buybacks, banking’s new frontier (the unbanked), Middle East trip report, emerging EMEA markets, Mexico emerging as a winner, evolving role of dividends, Q2 fund updates, etc.
A few quick notes: Our July 6th post discussed Ed Dowd’s prediction that as long as the U.S. Dollar Index holds above the 89.10 level, the Dollar will remain in a longer term bull market and will soon rip higher. A ZeroHedge behind a paywall article (see 🗃️) from Thursday consisting of mostly charts seems to be proving the later part of his prediction right:
💻 Dollar Snapback: From Widely Hated to Painfully Ripping (ZeroHedge) $ 🗃️
King dollar
On July 1 (here) we pointed out that the dollar had sold off too much and was setting up for a snapback. The DXY has broken above the negative trend line since then. Note we also took out the 21 day moving average, and are attempting the 50 day as of writing. A "proper" close above the 99 area, and the dollar squeeze risks going into "overdrive".
Here is the latest chart as of the week’s close with index at the 98.73 level:
In addition, the latest All-In Podcast discussed the passing of the GENIUS ACT / CLARITY Act which apparently will help bring crypto/stablecoin etc back onshore to the USA and allow it to be backed by the USD and treasury bills.
I don’t know that much about crypto/stablecoin and remain very sceptical of them; BUT if such digital assets can be brought under a US regulatory framework and get backed by the USD/treasury bills, then it goes without saying that’s going to be good for the USD/treasury bills (or rather the death of the USD and US treasury markets are being exaggerated…) and probably not so good for Europe/UK/Japan currencies/bonds in the longer term:
🎥 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law (All-In Podcast) 1:19:28 Hours (July 19, 2025)
(0:00) The Besties welcome Gavin Baker!
(1:51) Markets: Pricing in tariffs, Trump vs. Powell, solving the debt crisis
(19:24) The $10 trillion AGI prize, what artificial general intelligence and superintelligence looks like in the economy
(38:33) Sacks and Bo Hines join to discuss the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act passing the House this week, and what it means for crypto in the US
(52:42) AI Infrastructure: $90B in new investments announced, Nvidia H20 export restrictions lifted
(1:06:06) Sacks interviews Senator Bill Hagerty on the passing of the GENIUS Act
A recent column in This is Money also caught my attention as it discussed the importance of attending fund AGMs and related fund events:
📰 JEFF PRESTRIDGE: I love looking fund managers in the eye - and so should you (This is Money) 🗃️
Some investment companies, such as Guinness Global Investors, go out of their way to engage with customers. Others are not interested – more fool them.
Guinness holds regular events where investors in its funds get the chance to meet the managers, learn how things are going and the investment outlook.
I went to one of these 18 months ago, held at the posh Fortnum & Mason store in London.
Managers of its Global Equity Income fund 'sang' for their proverbial supper (tea and finger sandwiches) before taking questions from investors.
For those present, it was a far more enjoyable – and informative – experience than reading though a fund factsheet, that's for sure.
The author also discussed attending the AGM of the India Capital Growth Fund (LON: IGC), covered in these posts, as an observer in some detail.
Note that I am traveling Monday into Tuesday with most of Monday’s post already done (but it might still be delayed) between running around preparing to leave just as haze season starts in SE Asia.
Otherwise and as of mid-July, numerous Q2 fund updates have become available (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here) along with new research starting with some non-EM pieces:
Aberdeen Investments has these pieces mostly pushing Europe again:
🔬🌍 Producing in Europe for Europe: why reindustrialisation is the next big real estate play - We explore Europe's focus on resilience, highlighting prospects in securing supply chains and spurring innovation.
🔬🌍 Fixed Income: Why Euro corporate bonds may be one solution to fading US exceptionalism - Euro corporate bonds are gaining ground amid fading US exceptionalism and rising hedging costs. Discover why investors around the world are rethinking their bond allocations
🔬🌍 Equities: Why invest in Europe's smaller companies amid US uncertainty - European small caps are positioned to benefit from US uncertainty. Could this overlooked asset class be the smarter way to invest in Europe right now?
🔬🌍 European real estate market outlook Q3 2025 - Reindustrialisation in Europe offers a structural play for investors to source new opportunities. We discuss the outlook for European real estate.
🔬🇬🇧 UK real estate market outlook Q3 2025 - Returns have been gradually climbing since the start of the year, as capital growth has returned. Find out more about our UK real estate views.
🔬🌎 North America real estate market outlook Q3 2025 - The latest US data has been mixed. Firms are investing, but consumption momentum has been weaker. We discuss the impact on real estate.
New Asia Fund Documents & Research
⏰🎬🌏 Invitation – Asia Frontier Capital – Quarterly Webinar on Thursday, 24th July 2025
We will host our regular quarterly webinar to update existing and potential investors on the performance and outlook for our funds. The webinar will be held on Thursday, 24th July 2025, at 9:00am NY, 2:00pm UK, 3:00pm Swiss, and 9:00pm HK/SG time and will be recorded for viewing at your convenience.
The speakers on the webinar will be:
Thomas Hugger, CEO & Fund Manager
Ruchir Desai, Co-Fund Manager of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund
Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund
Scott Osheroff, CIO of the AFC Uzbekistan Fund
Vicente Nguyen, CIO of the AFC Vietnam Fund
The webinar will highlight the following key points:
Which markets were the key drivers of performance in the first half of 2025
How are Asian frontier markets navigating the geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty
Key country picks for the second half of 2025 and beyond
Positive catalysts and key concerns going forward
Outlook for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund, AFC Iraq Fund, AFC Uzbekistan Fund, and AFC Vietnam Fund
A link to the recording of the webinar will be sent to all who registered the day following the webinar, and will be available for viewing on our YouTube channel.
🎬🚩 Beyond tariffs: Finding alpha in Asia's domestic markets (Aberdeen Investments) 8:29 Minutes
🇹🇼 Taiwan Union Technology Corporation (TPEX: 6274) - Value-added materials & advanced mass lamination service to the global electronics industry.
🇹🇼 Chroma Ate Inc (TPE: 2360) - Taiwanese automated testing company. Semiconductor testing for AI-artificial intelligence. 🇼 🏷️
🇰🇷 Park Systems Corp (KOSDAQ: 140860) - Atomic force microscopy systems.
🇰🇷 LEENO Industrial (KOSDAQ: 058470) - Testing components for IC production, test & analysis.