China & Hong Kong Stock Picks (June 2025)
All about China "experts," "Chinese dream is slipping away" + Chinese/Hong Kong stocks BYD, NIO, Luk Fook Holdings, Vitasoy, Cafe De Coral, DFI Retail, Link REIT, Luckin Coffee, Horizon Robotics, etc.
A couple of quick China notes before getting to some Chinese/Hong Kong stocks: I tend to pay attention to tweets or insights from Desmond Shum, the author of Red Roulette: An Insider's Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today's China and who’s billionaire (now ex-) wife Whitney Duan (Duan Weihong) “disappeared” for several years in a corruption crackdown. Two of his recent tweets caught my attention starting with this lengthy one about China “experts:”
In addition:
For what its worth and on the same topic, this NY Times article also caught my attention:
📰 ‘The Better Life Is Out of Reach’: The Chinese Dream Is Slipping Away (NY Times) July 2025 🗃️
Promised a path to prosperity through hard work and education, China’s working class youths are hitting immovable ceilings.
The piece had this personal story that would be familiar to many people:
But Mr. Gao was exceptionally driven. After graduating from college in 2016, he worked hard, saved aggressively and attended a graduate program in Hong Kong. Since 2024, his job hunt has been an ordeal. One company asked him to work with no pay during a trial period. He quit a job after not being paid for two months. Another company rejected him because he was educated outside mainland China, making him politically unreliable, he was told.
In one interview, he was asked about his parents’ professions, which is not unusual in China. “Your family has low social status,” Mr. Gao was told and did not get the job.
“To them, perseverance is a defect,” he said. “If you have to struggle, it means you’re not good enough.”
Anxiety over inequality is growing in China. Children of privilege inherit not only wealth but also prestigious jobs and powerful connections. Children of laborers and farmers, no matter how driven or well educated, often struggle to break through.
It’s a dynamic that would feel familiar to many in the United States and some other developed nations. But in China, the stakes are higher. The average standard of living is lower, and the social safety net is far more fragile.
Michael Pettis is another China “expert” who often tweets interesting tweets or threads. Two of his recent threads that got my attention:
And:
Finally, the NY Times recently had a profile of David Webb of Webb-site Database [“A free database of people, organisations and statistics of Hong Kong and beyond, drawing together publicly available data…” The coming end of Webb-site 12 February 2025]:
📰 An Investor Who Took on Hong Kong’s Tycoons Faces a Tougher Foe (NY Times) June 2025 🗃️
David Webb spent decades exposing shady financial dealings. But doctors say he has months to live, and he hasn’t found anyone willing to carry on his mission.
Note his website’s useful Domicile of HK Main Board and GEM listed companies page plus when you search his website by ticker, it gives the domicile of individual stocks (as many Hong Kong stocks have offshore domiciles/incorporations - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX)’s stock quotes page also has such info).
Stocks covered by a couple of equity research providers in this post:
[Note: On desktop browsers, an autogenerated table of contents will appear on the left side linked to each stock. I will add those links below after publishing/emailing this post…]
🇨🇳 China - Bosideng International Holdings, Xiaomi, ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance, Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Green Tea Group, Waterdrop, BaTeLab, Jiumaojiu International Holdings, RoboSense Technology, Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings, BYD Company, Duality Biotherapeutics Inc, CGN Mining Co Ltd, NIO Inc., Aac Technologies Holdings, Black Sesame International Holding, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group & BYD Electronic International Co Ltd
Hong Kong stocks:
[Note: Access to some DBS Insights Direct pieces might be restricted depending on your location or browser.]
🇭🇰 Hong Kong - Swire Properties Ltd, Luk Fook Holdings International Ltd, Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Ltd, Far East Consortium International Ltd, Tai Cheung Holdings Ltd, Vitasoy International Holdings Ltd, China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd, Cafe De Coral, HKR International Ltd, ESR Group, Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, DFI Retail Group Holdings Ltd, Link Real Estate Investment Trust & New World Development Co Ltd
CMB International Capital Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank (SHA: 600036 / HKG: 3968 / OTCMKTS: CIHKY / OTCMKTS: CIHHF), has a monthly list of 20+ high conviction stock ideas - namely Chinese stock picks (see our 2023 - May, June, July, August, September, October, November & December; 2024 - January-February, March, April, May, June, July-August, September, October, November & December; 2025 - January, February, March, April & May posts posts summarizing those) BUT these lists do not change too much from month to month. Stocks covered by the CMBI June 2025 list (including additions and deletions) and included in this post with updated stats and charts include:
Geely Automobile, Xpeng Inc, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings,, Sany Heavy Industry, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, CGN Mining Co Ltd, JNBY Design, Luckin Coffee, Proya Cosmetics, China Resources Beverage Holdings (CR Beverage), BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, AIA Group Ltd, PICC Property and Casualty Co Ltd, Tencent, Alibaba, Trip.com, Greentown Service Group, Xiaomi, Aac Technologies Holdings, BYD Electronic International, Horizon Robotics, Will Semiconductor Co Ltd, BaTeLab, Naura Technology & Salesforce
And as always, this post is provided for informational purposes only (and to make your life easier…). It does not constitute investment advice and/or a recommendation…
🔬 Research analysis (including articles/blog posts from fund managers, etc.); 🎥 Video; 🎙️ Podcast; 🎬 Webinar; 📰 Newspaper/magazine article; 📯 Press release; 💻 Substack/blog/website article; ✅ Our own posts; 🗃️ Archived article; ⏰ Upcoming webinar or event; ⚠️ Disclosures or restricted access e.g. based on your location, investor status, etc.; 🇼 Wikipedia page; 🏷️ Tagged links to other posts about the stock.
🇨🇳 China
Bosideng International Holdings
🔬 Bosideng (3998 HK) - Prudent guidance but we are still confident (CMB International) 06-30 2025 ⚠️
🇨🇳 Bosideng International Holdings (HKG: 3998 / FRA: 3BD / OTCMKTS: BSDGY / BSDGF) 🇰🇾 - Down apparel + ladieswear brands. 🇼 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 2.77
Forward P/E: 11.47 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: 6.31% (Yahoo! Finance)
Xiaomi
🔬 Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Launch event takeaways: YU7, AI Glasses, MIX Flip 2 (CMB International) 06-27 2025 ⚠️
🔬 Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Key takeaways from Xiaomi Investor Day 2025 (CMB International) 06-04 2025 ⚠️
🌐 Xiaomi (HKG: 1810 / SGX: HXXD / FRA: 3CP / OTCMKTS: XIACF) 🇰🇾 - Consumer electronics & smart manufacturing company. Smartphones & smart hardware connected by an IoT platform at its core. 🇼 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 5.78
Forward P/E: 33.11 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: N/A (Yahoo! Finance)
ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance
🔬 ZhongAn (6060 HK) - Placement may cause limited downside despite short-term volatilities (CMB International) 06-26 2025 ⚠️
🔬 ZhongAn (6060 HK) - HK Stablecoins outlook opens up the headroom for valuation re-rating; uplift TP to HK$20.4 (CMB International) 06-03 2025 ⚠️
🇨🇳 ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co (HKG: 6060 / FRA: 1ZO) 🇨🇳 - First online-only insurance company in China. ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance Co., Ltd. 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 1.46
Forward P/E: 28.25 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: N/A (Yahoo! Finance)
Shanghai Henlius Biotech
🔬 Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - Large potential in innovative pipelines (CMB International) 06-24 2025 ⚠️
🌐 Shanghai Henlius Biotech (HKG: 2696 / OTCMKTS: SGBCF) 🇨🇳 - Global biopharmaceutical company (oncology, autoimmune diseases & ophthalmic diseases). 🏷️
Price/Book (Most Recent Quarter): 10.22
Forward P/E: 24.75 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: N/A (Yahoo! Finance)
Green Tea Group
🔬 Green Tea Group (6831 HK) - A casual Chinese cuisine leader of great value (CMB International) 06-24 2025 ⚠️
🇨🇳 Green Tea Group Ltd (HKG: 6831) 🇰🇾 - Casual Chinese restaurant operations. 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 6.69
Forward P/E: 10.05 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: N/A (Yahoo! Finance)
